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UID:8c1ef7859dce07abd3f535941f176d9f
CATEGORIES:Special Seminar
CREATED:20260313T165041
SUMMARY:Surprisingly large payouts in New Jersey Pick-It
LOCATION:Hill 705
DESCRIPTION:For the first decade of their existence, modern legal lottery games in the 
 US were a commercial failure.  That all changed when New Jersey introduced 
 Pick-It, the first successful legal game.  The popular story is that Pick-I
 t was successful because it imitated the popular illegal numbers game, but 
 there is more to the story than that.  When we examined the payouts from th
 e game, we discovered something mysterious.  The payouts started surprising
 ly high and then declined over the first ten years of the game, while the r
 ules of the game remained unchanged.  We'll use a combination of probabilit
 y, data science, and historical spelunking to explain this strange phenomen
 on and highlight creative design features of the game that helped its comme
 rcial success.\nThe math in this talk will use some probability of the sort
  covered on the SOA P exam (Math 477).\nThis talk represents joint work wit
 h Anthony Gamst.\n
X-ALT-DESC;FMTTYPE=text/html:<p>For the first decade of their existence, modern legal lottery games in t
 he US were a commercial failure. &nbsp;That all changed when New Jersey int
 roduced Pick-It, the first successful legal game. &nbsp;The popular story i
 s that Pick-It was successful because it imitated the popular illegal numbe
 rs game, but there is more to the story than that. &nbsp;When we examined t
 he payouts from the game, we discovered&nbsp;something mysterious.&nbsp; Th
 e payouts started surprisingly high and then declined over the first ten ye
 ars of the game, while the rules of the game remained unchanged.&nbsp; We'l
 l use a combination of probability, data science, and historical spelunking
  to explain this strange phenomenon and highlight creative design features 
 of the game that helped its commercial success.</p><p>The math in this talk
  will use some probability of the sort covered on the SOA P exam (Math 477)
 .</p><p>This talk represents joint work with Anthony Gamst.</p>
CONTACT:Ryan (Skip) Garibaldi (IDA/CCR, IPAM)
DTSTAMP:20260830T032700
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260406T170000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260406T180000
SEQUENCE:0
TRANSP:OPAQUE
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