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UID:8c1ef7859dce07abd3f535941f176d9f
CATEGORIES:Special Seminar
CREATED:20260313T165041
SUMMARY:Surprisingly large payouts in New Jersey Pick-It
LOCATION:Hill 705
DESCRIPTION:<p>For the first decade of their existence, modern legal lottery games in t
 he US were a commercial failure. &nbsp;That all changed when New Jersey int
 roduced Pick-It, the first successful legal game. &nbsp;The popular story i
 s that Pick-It was successful because it imitated the popular illegal numbe
 rs game, but there is more to the story than that. &nbsp;When we examined t
 he payouts from the game, we discovered&nbsp;something mysterious.&nbsp; Th
 e payouts started surprisingly high and then declined over the first ten ye
 ars of the game, while the rules of the game remained unchanged.&nbsp; We'l
 l use a combination of probability, data science, and historical spelunking
  to explain this strange phenomenon and highlight creative design features 
 of the game that helped its commercial success.</p><p>The math in this talk
  will use some probability of the sort covered on the SOA P exam (Math 477)
 .</p><p>This talk represents joint work with Anthony Gamst.</p>
CONTACT:Ryan (Skip) Garibaldi (IDA/CCR, IPAM)
DTSTAMP:20260830T052113
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260406T170000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260406T180000
SEQUENCE:0
TRANSP:OPAQUE
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